UTCC unit forecasts 2% export growth despite China
Export value is forecast to grow by 2 per cent this year to US$218.34 billion (Bt7.935 trillion), the first expansion in four years, according to the University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce’s Centre for International Trade Studies. But exports to China
The centre foresees exports in the worst case growing by only 0.1 per cent to $214.27 billion, and in the best case by 4.1 per cent to $222.83 billion. That compares with an estimated 5.9-per-cent contraction last year.
"Thai exports this year will expand slightly on the recovery of the global economy. However, the sluggishness of China will still be a major negative factor, since about 11 per cent of Thai exports have relied on the China market, while China has also had an indirect influence on export to many markets, mainly in Asean," Aat Pisanwanich, director of the centre, said yesterday.
China is Thailand’s third-largest export market after Asean and the United States.
He said that if China’s gross domestic product could grow by 6.3 per cent, Thai export value this year would grow by at least 2 per cent. This year, Thai exports to that country are projected to decline by 1.1 per cent, compared with contraction of about 5.4 per cent last year.
Other negative factors are stronger export competency by Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar and Vietnam, declining crop prices, the labour problem in the Thai fishery industry, and international conflicts and terrorism.
Positive factors are the recovery of global economic growth, particularly in the United States, the depreciation of the baht (though other currencies have also been weakening), and expected lower oil prices, which could average $30 per barrel this year.
Products that will likely face better export growth this year are processed foods, jewellery and ornaments, electrical appliances and parts, and automobiles and parts.
Facing export risks this year are chemical products, plastic and parts, rubber and rubber products.
Aat said that to drive export growth this year, the government and private exporters should focus more on India, whose GDP is expected to expand by 7.5 per cent this year.
Export to India has high potential to grow as people there have high demand for many goods and strong purchasing power, he said.
Other markets that Thailand should focus on are Russia and Central Asia.
