Oil prices hold firm as Iran confirms senior security leader killed

Crude oil prices remained broadly elevated, holding in positive territory as the conflict in the Middle East continues to drag on. Iran has confirmed the death of a senior security leader, further escalating tensions and impacting global energy markets.

According to Bloomberg, overall crude oil prices have stabilised at high levels, hovering around 100 US dollars per barrel amid the prolonged conflict. Iran’s confirmation of the death of a top national security figure has intensified concerns over the situation.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude was trading at around 96 dollars per barrel after rising nearly 3% on Tuesday, while Brent crude settled above 103 dollars.

Iranian state media reported that Ali Larijani, Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council and a key figure in the country’s wartime leadership, had been killed.

The death comes as President Donald Trump attempts to reopen trade routes through the Strait of Hormuz. The US leader had urged allies to deploy warships to help secure the passage, which normally carries about one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. However, he later withdrew the request after failing to secure sufficient support.

“The killing of Larijani is significant and may increase Iran’s determination to disrupt oil shipments,” said Aaron Stein, president of the Foreign Policy Research Institute. “It is clear that Trump is under pressure to escort tankers, so we may face a more tense US operation, which I am sure the US Navy would prefer to avoid.”

US crude prices have surged more than 60% this year, largely following the initial attacks on Iran by the United States and Israel late last month. Tehran’s strikes on energy infrastructure and its obstruction of tanker traffic have driven prices higher and raised concerns about worsening inflation.

The sharp rise in prices — with US diesel exceeding 5 dollars per gallon this week — will be closely monitored by central banks worldwide as they determine monetary policy. Officials at the US Federal Reserve are set to meet on Wednesday to decide interest rates, although no change is expected at this meeting.

This week, Iran has intensified attacks across the region, including heavier strikes on Saudi Arabia. Most of the attacks have been concentrated in the kingdom’s eastern province, home to key oil infrastructure. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, the Saudi government has accelerated efforts to transport oil via pipelines across the country to alternative ports on the Red Sea.

The oil market continues to closely monitor developments in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains blocked. Current traffic conditions are being shaped by political calculations, with Iran likely allowing only a limited number of vessels to pass based on relationships, while restricting or blocking most others.

“With no signs of the conflict ending, increasing production outages and the strait remaining closed, we continue to believe Brent will stay within the 95–110 dollar range,” said Robert Rennie, head of commodity research at Westpac. “If we see major refineries hit or further confirmation of mines in the strait, we would expect the range to rise by another 10–20 dollars,” he added.

• Price update on Wednesday morning (March 18, 2026):

WTI crude for April delivery fell 0.4% to 95.81 dollars per barrel at 6:53am Singapore time.
Brent crude for May delivery closed 3.2% higher at 103.42 dollars per barrel on Tuesday.