Myanmar peace accord rings hollow

Foreign diplomats and other dignitaries looked on yesterday as the government of Myanmar signed a “permanent” ceasefire agreement in the capital, Nay Pyi Taw, with eight armed ethnic groups. It was a historic occasion, to be sure – the result of three years of intense negotiation and horse-trading – but it was certainly not up to the hype generated by the country’s state-run media.

Touted as Thein Sein’s legacy to his people, the agreements were not what the president had been hoping for. The fact that only eight of the 16 groups with which the government had been negotiating ended up endorsing the document rendered this a hollow victory. Fully half the armed insurrectionist groups are holding back. Their reasons for doing so vary, but a central concern is that the peace agreement is meaningless unless every group signs it at the same time.

Other key groups, such as the United Wa State Army (UWSA), refused to have anything to do with yesterday’s event. The UWSA forged a ceasefire of its own in 1989 with the military rulers of what was then called Burma. Its 20,000-strong army and many more reserves on standby gave the group a powerful bargaining chip in striking a separate deal. Wa allies, including the Kokang and the Mong La groups, heeded its advice to skip yesterday’s signing ceremony too.

There have been suggestions that these three groups are proxies of China and as such would prefer to take collective action, rather than sign individual agreements. And meanwhile the Kachin Independence Army is still waging vigorous war with Burmese troops.

So Thein Sein, who made ceasefire pacts with all the rebel groups his top priority, will have to wait a while longer to see if the mantle “man of peace” is bestowed on him. He could be in for a long wait, and in fact he might never be recognised as such.

Peace is a noble goal but, when intentions are questionable, opponents are not going to meet you halfway. No one is forgetting that Thein Sein, despite his civilian garb, is very much a part of the military establishment, or that he himself played a direct role in the vicious war against these ethnic groups. He was the powerful head of Triangle Command in northern Shan State when many battles were taking place.

Thais vividly recall Burmese incursions across our northern border at the time, when refugee camps on Thai soil were raided and stray artillery and mortar rounds landed deep inside our territory. This was defended as a case of “hot pursuit” and “counter-insurgency”. Admittedly the Thai Army was no innocent bystander. Our troops quietly supported Burmese anti-government militants, just as Myanmar has backed armed posses pointing their guns in our direction.

The buffer zone established along the border reflects the historical mistrust between the two countries, and these proxies were recruited to avoid direct military confrontation. But so many innocent people suffered as the battles continued.

Rural people on the Myanmar side – harassed, abducted, robbed, murdered and raped by Burmese soldiers – haven’t forgotten the hideous crimes committed by their government. As a result, there can be no meaningful and lasting peace until these atrocities are acknowledged and action taken to make amends.

If that means admitting that mistakes were made and allocating significant sums of money by way of compensation, these are small prices to pay. If legal action must be taken to achieve reconciliation, that too can and should be done.

Too many lives have been lost in these monstrous internecine conflicts for Thein Sein to ignore. If he is sincere about peace, he must make the healing process an integral part of the next phase of Myanmar’s dealings with the ethnic groups.