The art of the deal: Trump vs Kim
South Koreans are full of expectations for the upcoming summit between the United States and North Korea. However, experts point to a number of challenges that need to be dealt with to make the event successful.
Moreover, observers are worried what might happen if the negotiations are derailed for some reason.
Writing in the Washington Post, Patricia Kim, a Korean affairs expert at the Council of Foreign Relations in Washington, lays out “The 3 big obstacles to success if Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un meet”. She accurately singles out credibility gaps, expectation gaps and desired-outcome gaps.
Indeed, there are huge “trust issues” between the US and North Korea. The world, including the US, has little faith in North Korea’s sincerity thanks to its past behaviour. Then comes the difference of expectations: North Korea would want the US to lift economic sanctions during the negotiations, whereas Washington might think of sanctions as a separate issue.
The agendas they each bring to the negotiation table may be radically different as well.
Patricia Kim wrote, “North Koreans will face their own struggle to prove their trustworthiness, given a track record of violating deal after deal they have signed in the past. Most observers believe North Korea will cheat and continue to expand its nuclear program[me] in coming months.”
She also raised concerns about the agenda North Korea will surely bring to the negotiation table in addition to demanding a guarantee of its security. “For instance, Kim could ask for the termination of the US alliance with South Korea and the withdrawal of US troops from the Korean Peninsula.”
Indeed, there’s a strong possibility that North Korea will propose a peace treaty to end the de facto state of war with the South, which will result in the withdrawal of American troops from South Korea and the termination of its alliance with Washington. If that happens, South Korea will surely find itself in a nightmare situation of being vulnerable to aggression from the North and interference from China.
Conservatives in South Korea naively believe the US will never give up South Korea due to its strategic importance. South Korea was strategically crucial during the Cold War era, at a time when the United States competed with the Soviet Union and feared the expansion of communism in Asia. Today, however, communism is dead. Even North Korea, which some dub the last communist outpost on earth, has been calling itself a socialist country since the early 1990s.
Writing recently in the Daily Beast, Gordon G Chang also cast doubts on North Korea’s credibility and remarks it is unlikely to give up its nukes for a security guarantee from the United States.
Chang reckoned that North Korea’s promise is too good to be true, when its politicians have for years insisted that they will never give up nukes. Chang reminds us that Pyongyang cemented its position with a nuclear constitution in 2012. Why, then, would the country lay down such precious and proud leverage?
Chang mentions several possibilities regarding North Korea’s recent gesture. For one thing, he suspects that North Korea may want to buy time to complete its weapons development by deliberately engaging in “another round of fruitless negotiations”. Moreover, North Korea may hope that economic sanctions will be lifted during the negotiations. If that is the case, the North will kill two birds with one stone.
Like others, Chang suggests that North Korea’s assurances may not be directed at Washington, but at South Korea. “It is possible that Kim Jong-un, a master of propaganda, thought they would resonate with South Korean voters,” he wrote. Parliamentary and local elections are set for June 13 in South Korea. “Kim Jong-un knows his South Korean counterpart, if given a free hand, will send cash northward.” Chang points out that perhaps this is why North Korea does not speak to Washington directly.
Lastly, he maintains that North Korea may want money in return for assuring South Koreans that it will not use nuclear weapons against them. He concludes, “Of course, no one should believe such a no-attack promise as long as the Korean People’s Army remains forward-deployed along the Demilitarised Zone.”
We hope that Chang’s suspicion turns out to be unfounded. Nevertheless, we should keep such warnings in mind until North Korea really gives up nukes.
The eyes of the world are watching the Korean Peninsula. Despite the challenges and huge obstacles, the summit must go ahead. We have reason to hope that the two leaders can conjure up a peaceful solution to this unprecedented crisis and pave the way for a peaceful future on the Korean Peninsula. The alternative is increasingly unthinkable.
– The Korea Herald/Asia News Network
Kim Seong-kon is a professor emeritus of English at Seoul National University and distinguished visiting professor at George Washington University.
