Thaksin’s clout has clearly dissipated

Fugitive former premier Thaksin Shinawatra will be testing his mettle once again in the general election likely to be held early next year. This time, his potential nominees for the premiership are Sudarat Keyuraphun and Jaturon Chaisaeng, who respectively chair the campaign-strategy committees of the Pheu Thai and Thai Raksa Chart parties.
Thaksin’s long-lasting clout among the grassroots population is well known among all career politicians and former military men-turned politicians. After spending years in self-imposed exile overseas to avoid criminal punishment, the ex-premier is expected to fight again, even though his edge has dulled over time.
The latest polls show that the 30-baht-universal healthcare scheme and village funds introduced by the original Thaksin administration in the early 2000s remain among the most enduring policies in the minds of his supporters. These two policies not only remain intact, but also have been significantly expanded by the current Prayut government. Besides the universal healthcare coverage, the junta-led government has given more state subsidies to at least 11 million low-income people across the nation in the form of free but limited transportation and electricity, plus a small amount of monthly cash.
The formerly popular village funds have also been expanded into “people’s banks” via new legislation that will be implemented with the help of the Government Savings Bank and Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives.
Politically, there is nothing wrong with emulating your rivals’ successful platform along with other efforts to win at the polls. But a key question is whether Thaksin’s brand remains formidable despite a series of efforts to undermine it over the past four years. Has the Thaksin brand really weakened significantly over time and is it unlikely to win enough votes to prevent Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return to power following the election?
According to Rangsit University’s latest polling, Thaksin has suffered from the exodus of too many competent persons and dubious activities inside his various political parties, namely the Thai Rak Thai, Palang Pachachon and Pheu Thai parties, which were in turn the originators of previous populist policies. The Rangsit survey further found that Thaksin’s parties no longer held the advantage in terms of social media and other communication technology. Third, the image of Thaksin’s parties was badly damaged by the Yingluck Shinawatra administration’s rice-pledging scheme, which resulted in massive corruption. 
Fourth, there are now too many factions within Thaksin’s parties, making it more challenging for him to control the levers from overseas. Last but not least, other political parties have gained more confidence over the past years to ensure anyone’s bet on the return of Prayut as prime minister. They could well muster enough votes to support the former Army chief as an elected premier.
In this context, a growing number of key figures who previously worked with Thaksin have switched camps to work for Prayut’s comeback, joining multiple political parties. Meanwhile the incumbent also has an advantage in the Senate thanks to the constitution his government introduced.
One of the biggest drivers for Prayut’s return is the Palang Pracharat Party, whose leaders are members of the Prayut Cabinet and spent years expanding on and fine-tuning policies that have had the biggest impression on grassroots voters. As a result, the odds against Thaksin’s parties succeeding at the polls appear to have dwindled considerably this time around.