Time is no longer on Taiwan’s side 

The question of whether Taiwan should maintain its policy toward China before the next presidential election is long overdue.
This is not a minor issue in our highly polarised political system, though.
Supporters of the president argue that last month’s elections are an indication the government should maintain its course on cross-strait policies, while her opponents say she should stop dithering and engage in dialogue with China on the basis of the “1992 Consensus”.
The answer to these questions, however, lies in our perception of time.
 That perception is governing a widening gap between Taiwan’s people and the DPP leadership, which has moved away from the “China collapse” theory and converted to the “China threat” theory.
The former was popular among the pervious ruling Kuomintang (KMT) coalition – until China became the world’s second-largest economy and began exerting growing international and regional influence.
The result has been increasing use of the “China threat card” to rally people behind the party since the DPP came into power in May 2016.

Overplaying the ‘China threat’ theory
Time and again, President Tsai’s supporters have warned of the Chinese government’s alleged attempts to meddle in Taiwan elections, in a move to boost her reform agenda and pave the way for her re-election.
In the run-up to last month’s Kaohsiung election, however, the ruling DPP failed to convince voters that China’s alleged social-media disinformation campaign was responsible for the unexpected popularity of opposition KMT candidate Han Kuo-yu.
Han, 61, defeated his DPP rival on a platform of economic development for the port city which he openly described as “outdated and poor”.
The mayor-elect promptly announced plans to set up a “cross-strait working group” to promote trade.
In the run-up to the elections, President Tsai had declared that “the whole world is watching whether Taiwan’s people will vote for a China-leaning party or choose one that is committed to democracy and human rights”.
Kaohsiung people ignored the plea and elected a new mayor who has never concealed his support for the 1992 Consensus.

A government in denial 
Taiwan’s biggest research centre has cut its forecast for GDP growth this year to 2.64 per cent, expecting it to slow further to 2.45 per cent next year, as trade tensions grip financial markets.
Demand from China, our largest trade partner, has already taken a hit and Taiwan firms have negative views on their business prospects next year.
At the same time, the ruling party has failed to explain that Taiwan is facing possible fluctuations in the US economy, an eventual downturn in Chinese economic growth, and expected outflow of foreign funds to emerging markets like Indonesia, India and Thailand.
Despite the US and China agreeing to a 90-day suspension of any new tariffs, Taiwan-based companies manufacturing in China are being pushed by their brand clients to repatriate production to lower the risk from the trade war. The move, however, could have a limited impact on Taiwan’s economy, whose unemployment rate is merely 3 per cent.

Downplaying the tourism slump
Another problem is that the US-China trade war might drag on for 10 years, according to Terry Gou, founder of Taiwan tech manufacturer Foxconn, who warned on December 4 of fundamental changes to export markets if the US continued to build barriers to China acquiring key technology.
Taiwan’s government is keen to blame the sharp drop in visitors from mainland China on the increasingly strained cross-strait relations. But it has done nothing to deal with the worsening loss of revenue in tourism, a key economic sector.
The typical response to the rhetorical question – Why people don’t come to Taiwan anymore? – is always the same: We welcome Chinese tourists although they cannot come due of the politicisation of cross-strait affairs. This is just a self-congratulatory assessment of an anticipated policy failure.

Maintaining the status quo
We understand that the exercise of power can impact any political party’s perception of time, but Taiwan opposition and ruling parties should nonetheless agree that time is not on our side and push for a better integration of Taiwan in the global economy.
At the same time, we hope that the ruling DPP will come up with a new strategy to address China’s rise to superpower status, instead of playing the China card.
Mainland China accounts for over 40 per cent of Taiwan’s exports, of which 80 per cent are intermediary goods that are assembled before being sold in China or exported overseas.
Launching the New Southbound Policy in 2016 to boost trade and investment with Asean was a step in the right direction, but relocating manufacturing in the region cannot be a substitute for discussing trade and investment ties with Chinese authorities.
Taiwan hasn’t signed any free-trade agreements with Asean states, meaning that our exports are often subject to hefty Southeast Asian tariffs.
On the other hand, Taiwan signed a crucial trade pact with mainland China – the Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement – in 2010, but local politicians have been unable to overcome partisanship on trade with China.
As long as we keep delaying decisions without a guarantee on better outcomes, time will not be on Taiwan’s side.

The writer is editor-in-chief of the China Post, Taiwan. The Asian Writers’ Circle is a series of columns on global affairs written by editors and writers from members of the Asia News Network and published in newspapers, websites and social media platforms across the region.