An alliance could topple the generals

An attempt to form an alliance among political parties to block General Prayut Chan-o-cha’s return as prime minister does not seem unusual given the current political climate. To carry any weight, however, it would require the solid support of parties currently sitting on the fence that separates the royalists from the republicans, such as the Bhum Jai Thai Party.
Prachachat Party leader Wan Muhamad Noor Matha has floated the notion of a formal alliance inked in earnest, the aim being to fight provisional constitutional rules that give the Senate a role in deciding who will be premier after the election scheduled for February. The idea supports calls by others in the anti-junta camp for a coalition of parties that together win more than half of the 500 seats in the House of Representatives. Such a coalition would technically be able to form a government.
The proposed alliance might not be able to bar Prayut from becoming premier, but it could place obstacles in his road back to the office, since he must rely primarily on senatorial support. More importantly, the alliance would vastly improve the anti-junta camp’s ability to win political control after the election – or foster a formidable opposition able, for example, to turn the tide in censure votes.
In the present situation, parties sitting on the fence would have to be locked in under signatures to pledges to join the one side or the other. The pro-Prayut camp will be lobbying hard for their support to give him a more stable government, and Wan of Prachachat seeks to make that lobbying futile. He wants a memorandum of understanding committing the signatories to stick together if they collectively win a majority in the House. Already about 20 parties have been approached. Pheu Thai, Thai Raksachart, Pheu Chart and Future Forward have been solicited with confidence – none of these would back a Prayut government. The big question marks hover over Bhum Jai Thai and the Democrats.
The alliance pact, if it materialises, would come into effect soon and extend well beyond the election. It would require all members to stick together throughout that period and would probably prohibit campaign offences such as buying votes, hate speech and violence.
The main objective, though, would be to weaken military influence. The parties still wavering will play a critical king-maker role after the election. Even if the pro-Prayut camp wins the 376 votes required to keep him on as premier, it will need other parties’ backing to form a stable coalition. Even if the Pheu Thai camp musters more than 250 House seats, it will need the other parties’ support to forge an effective alliance.
The mid-sized parties are thus more important in this election than ever before. In fact, some observers suggest Bhum Jai Thai leader Anutin Charnvirakul could win the biggest prize of all by beating bigger parties’ candidates to become prime minister.
Wan’s proposal underlines the highly peculiar and divisive nature of Thai politics. There is nothing new about calls for alliances, military intervention or questions about the underlying objectives of outwardly noble plans. What’s happening now is bolder, though – a bid to wipe out corruption, violence and junta repression all at the same time. We can only hope that such an alliance would not be just another power play pursued without the people’s best interests in mind.