JCR affirms Thailand at A, cites strong fiscal discipline
Sovereign credit rating affirmed at A with stable outlook, backed by fiscal discipline, resilient fundamentals, and recovery in investment, exports and tourism
On March 18, 2026, Jindarat Viriyataveekul, director of the Public Debt Management Office, said Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd. (JCR) had affirmed Thailand’s sovereign credit rating at A and maintained a stable outlook.
The decision reflects foreign investors’ confidence in Thailand’s economic fundamentals and its ability to withstand external pressures.
In its latest assessment, JCR said Thailand’s real GDP growth in 2025 stood at 2.4%, supported mainly by accelerated public infrastructure investment, stronger private-sector investment and solid exports, particularly in electronics. Domestic consumption stimulus measures also contributed to growth.
For 2026, the agency expects the Thai economy to continue expanding at a moderate pace, supported by the recovery of the tourism industry and lower policy interest rates, which should help ease financing costs.
On the fiscal front, JCR forecasts Thailand’s fiscal deficit at about 4.4% of GDP in 2026, reflecting an expansionary policy stance aimed at supporting growth.
Even so, JCR expressed confidence in Thailand’s ability to manage its public debt, expecting the country to keep debt below the 70% of GDP ceiling by 2029 in line with the Medium-Term Fiscal Framework.
Importantly, more than 99% of Thailand’s public debt is domestic debt, while foreign debt accounts for only 0.8%, underscoring the strength of the country’s debt structure.
Beyond debt fundamentals, JCR also sees Thailand as having potential to become a supply chain hub in Southeast Asia through tax incentives designed to attract foreign investment into the automotive and electronics industries.
Thailand’s external financial position remains another key strength, supported by a current account surplus and high international reserves.
Although the banking sector still faces risks from retail and SME lending, JCR said non-performing loans remained stable at 2.84%, while the banking system’s capital adequacy ratio stood at a strong 20.9% at the end of December 2025, providing a sufficient buffer.
However, the agency also highlighted longer-term risks that should be monitored closely, as they could affect future ratings. These include Thailand’s economic growth compared with its ASEAN peers, the rapidly ageing population structure, and risks stemming from the country’s high dependence on energy imports from the Middle East.
JCR said these would remain important structural issues requiring careful and systematic policy planning going forward.
