JSCCIB raises Thailand GDP forecast to 1.6-2.0%

The Joint Standing Committee on Commerce, Industry and Banking (JSCCIB) has raised its forecast for Thailand’s 2026 economic growth to 1.6-2.0%, supported by the 170-billion-baht “Thais Help Thais Plus” stimulus scheme.

The committee also lifted its export growth forecast to 8-10%, while warning that Thailand’s economy remains K-shaped, with the technology sector growing strongly but most businesses still facing high costs and weak purchasing power.

The private sector also stressed that Thailand still has sufficient energy security, with reserves enough for more than 109 days, despite the prolonged conflict in the Middle East.

Payong Srivanich, chairman of the Thai Bankers’ Association and chair of the JSCCIB meeting, said after the committee’s June 2026 meeting that the JSCCIB had revised up its forecast for Thailand’s GDP growth this year from 1.2-1.6% to 1.6-2.0%.

The upgrade followed support from the Thais Help Thais Plus scheme, worth about 170 billion baht, which is expected to stimulate spending and domestic economic activity in the second half of the year.

The JSCCIB also raised its export forecast for this year to growth of 8-10%, compared with its previous projection of flat growth.

It also revised its inflation forecast to 2.5-3.0%, up from 2.0-3.0%, reflecting the impact of energy costs and global commodity price trends.

The committee said energy security remains a key risk factor for the global economy this year. Energy exports from the Middle East through the Strait of Hormuz are not expected to return to normal in the short term, while OECD member countries are likely to accelerate crude oil imports to replenish declining reserves.

This could intensify competition for energy supplies and keep oil prices elevated.

The situation is expected to keep global production costs for goods and services high, while adding pressure on inflation and consumer purchasing power in many countries.

K-shaped economy remains a concern

Although Thailand’s exports expanded by 18.9% in the first four months of the year, the JSCCIB said most of the growth came from technology products, which rose by 48.4% in line with global investment trends in AI and data centres.

However, the benefits of this growth have not yet spread widely through the Thai economy, as these industries still rely heavily on imported raw materials and components.

At the same time, many businesses continue to face higher raw-material and energy costs, as well as weak domestic purchasing power.

As a result, Thailand’s economy remains in a K-shaped condition, where only some sectors benefit from exports and foreign direct investment.

The JSCCIB proposed accelerating economic restructuring so that investment in technology and future industries can generate more value-added activity and employment in Thailand.

The private sector believes Thailand should use the opportunity created by global investment trends, particularly in AI, data centres and cyber security, to attract foreign investment while upgrading smart electronics and advanced manufacturing.

It also called for efforts to increase the proportion of local content, develop research and development, improve laws and regulations that obstruct investment, and prepare Thailand for OECD membership to strengthen long-term competitiveness.

The JSCCIB said that if these steps are pursued consistently, Thailand has the potential to become a regional hub for production, services and finance in the future.

IMF-World Bank meetings seen as chance to build global confidence

The JSCCIB also said Thailand should use its role as host of several international events this year and next year, including ABAC 2026, Gastech 2026, the Thailand-US Trade & Investment Forum 2026 and the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings, to showcase the country’s economic potential to the global community.

At the same time, the World Bank is preparing a report titled “Building Thailand’s Future Today”, which is expected to serve as an important database reflecting Thailand’s strengths and growth opportunities, while helping attract foreign investors and partners.

Thailand has oil reserves for 109 days

On domestic energy conditions, the JSCCIB confirmed that Thailand still has energy security, with combined crude oil and refined oil reserves of more than 13.384 billion litres.

This is enough for domestic use for about 109 days, and there are no signs of an energy shortage.

Refinery operators have also reduced their dependence on crude oil from the Middle East from around 55% to 27%, while increasing imports from other sources to 73% to reduce risks from geopolitical conflict.

The JSCCIB also supports the government in accelerating the announcement of the Power Development Plan 2026 (PDP 2026) by August.

The plan is expected to serve as an important framework for managing energy costs, increasing the share of renewable energy and strengthening the long-term competitiveness of Thai industry.