TAT forecasts 33 million foreign tourists as oil costs weigh on travel

Thapanee Kiatphaibool, Governor of the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT), said on Thursday (June 11, 2026) that Thailand’s tourism situation had been affected by unrest in the Middle East, which had pushed up oil prices, increased the cost of goods and affected the global economy.

TAT targets 33 million foreign arrivals and THB2.65 trillion revenue this year

As a result, TAT forecasts 33 million foreign tourists in 2026, generating THB1.55 trillion in revenue, and 200.4 million domestic person-trips, generating THB1.1 trillion.

For the overseas market, in the first five months, foreign tourists travelling to Thailand totalled 14.03 million, close to the 14.36 million recorded in the same period of 2025, a slight decline of 2.3%, generating THB679.274 billion in revenue.

Middle East tourists fall sharply as Europe remains stable

Thapanee said that, by market, directly affected long-haul markets included the Middle East, down 24.9%, and Africa, down 4%.

The European and US markets still showed a stable trend, close to 2025 levels.

Markets that continued to grow included Scandinavian markets and Eastern Europe, especially Sweden, up 14.3%, Norway, up 10.9%, Poland, up 16.9%, and Kazakhstan, up 8.3%.

For short-haul markets, East Asia showed stronger growth in the first five months of 2026, with the China market returning to notable growth, up 18.4%, and 2.3 million tourists travelling to Thailand.

In South Asia, India was still growing well at 8%, with 1 million tourists, but the ASEAN market showed a slowing trend, down 14%.

Economic pressure cuts domestic travel revenue by 4%

In the domestic market, in the first five months of 2026, Thai visitors totalled 85.32 million person-trips, close to 2025 levels, generating THB89.989 billion in tourism revenue, down 4%, due to weaker Thai purchasing power caused by the oil crisis.

This made people more cautious about spending.

Domestic airlines also reduced or cancelled domestic flights, long-distance road tourism declined, and Thai travellers turned more to nearby destinations and more budget travel.

Ending the visa-free measure is not expected to affect travel

Regarding the cabinet’s cancellation of the 60-day visa-free measure for 93 countries, as most tourists have an average length of stay of less than 30 days, it is expected not to have a significant impact on tourism.

The Indian market, which must return to visa-on-arrival (VOA) rules, may see some impact on decisions to choose Thailand as a destination.

The Ministry of Tourism and Sports has proposed consideration of a 15-day visa exemption for Indian tourists, as the average stay of Indian tourists is about nine days.

There may also be consideration of visa-exemption criteria for new markets with potential to travel to Thailand, such as the Middle East and Belarus, which may be considered in either 15-day or 30-day formats, as appropriate.

Short-haul market push targets 21m visitors this year

Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, TAT Deputy Governor for International Marketing – Asia and the South Pacific, said the plan to stimulate the short-haul market in 2026 aimed to attract 21 million tourists from short-haul markets this year.

Growth in the main markets showed East Asia had notable growth.

Chinese tourists in particular were showing increasingly positive signals, at about 7% growth, and Indian tourists had grown by about 8%, while Russian tourist numbers were close to normal-period levels at about 900,000.

The challenge was that although ASEAN overall had slipped slightly, by about 8%, because of a decline in Malaysian tourists, South Korea, currently down 19%, was a group for which TAT was preparing special strategies to regain momentum.

TAT will focus on restoring air capacity.

TAT aims for airline capacity to return to above 2019 levels, or more than 100%, from the current recovery of about 80-90% in many markets.

It will promote new routes, working with airlines such as Vietjet to open new services from Hanoi to Udon Thani and Khon Kaen to meet demand from people seeking to visit their hometowns or travel for culture.

It will also pursue win-win cooperation strategies, such as cooperation with Vietnam to draw tourists from third countries to connect onwards to Thailand.

It will also target quality segments, such as families, with proactive marketing during school holidays between July and August, especially from the Chinese and Indian tourist markets, and focus on the leisure segment, targeting those deciding to travel during the year-end tourism season.

However, amid volatile global economic conditions, short-haul markets have a distance advantage, making travel decisions easier and faster than in long-haul markets.

It will also link tourism routes, connecting major cities with secondary cities and promoting convenient routes such as Bangkok to Nakhon Ratchasima (Korat), which takes less than one hour.

It will also push a short-haul flight strategy by supporting connecting flights to regional airports, such as Chiang Mai-Chiang Rai or Surat Thani-Nakhon Si Thammarat, to distribute tourists to communities.

TAT will also build international partnerships, using memorandums of understanding or letters of intent (MOU/LOI) with partners and airlines in short-haul markets to exchange information and customer bases, a key strength in pushing towards its revenue and tourist-number targets.

Long-haul target set at 10 million visitors to Thailand

Chiravadee Khunsub, TAT Deputy Governor for International Marketing – Europe, the Americas, the Middle East and Africa, said that for the long-haul market in 2026, TAT was looking at 10 million tourists.

It had laid out proactive strategies to attract “Quality Volume” tourists, focusing on increasing revenue and tourism value rather than tourist numbers alone.

TAT will prioritise an Airline Focus strategy because the most important factor for long-haul markets is “access”.

TAT is therefore prioritising close work with airlines to increase air capacity, including resumed flights such as British Airways returning to direct flights from London and Manchester to Bangkok.

Other airlines include Virgin Atlantic and Air Canada.

It will also promote new routes, such as LOT Polish Airlines starting direct flights from Poland to Thailand for the first time in July this year, while the Polish market has grown by as much as 16%.

Despite geopolitical challenges, several long-haul groups have shown signs of growth, including Europe.

Markets with outstanding growth include Scandinavia (Sweden +15%), Poland (+16%) and Italy (+10%).

The Americas market remained at a good level and was highly resilient.

At the same time, TAT will emphasise communications and products for quality markets, including working through partnerships, cooperating with media partners to target the super-luxury segment in Europe, communicating a premium tourism image, and creating a new perception that Thailand is not merely a general leisure destination but a centre of wellness and sustainability.

It will also drive Thailand towards world-class events, with the highlight being Tomorrowland 2026 on a full-scale basis in December, which will be an important tool for stimulating interest among younger travellers worldwide.

Tickets and accommodation in Pattaya have already been fully booked for that period.