Bangkok condo glut hits 350,000 units, may take six years to clear

Greater Bangkok’s condominium market is facing a heavy stock overhang of around 350,000 unsold units, which could take five to six years to clear, according to Knight Frank Thailand.

The company said that in the first quarter of 2026, 6,174 new condominium units were launched in Bangkok and its surrounding provinces. Notably, no new projects were launched in the central business district (CBD).

More than 58% of new launches were in city-fringe areas, while the remaining 42% were in suburban locations. This reflects developers’ efforts to reduce exposure to high-cost locations and expensive projects, while shifting towards areas with a broader buyer base.

The pricing data points in the same direction. More than 68% of newly launched condominiums were priced below 80,000 baht per square metre, suggesting that developers are moving away from the high-end segment and focusing more on the mass market.

Another key indicator is the booking rate for newly launched projects, which fell sharply to just 24.3% in the first quarter from 43.8% in the previous quarter. In other words, for every 100 newly launched units, only around 24 were reserved.

Knight Frank said the decline was not caused by a disappearance of housing demand, but by changing consumer behaviour amid an economy that has yet to fully recover. Many buyers are taking longer to make decisions, comparing more options and placing greater emphasis on value for money.

As a result, developers can no longer rely on the old strategy of launching new projects and achieving rapid sales as they did in the past.

Despite the weaker booking rate, condominium ownership transfers in Bangkok and surrounding provinces rose by 12.7% year on year. The increase was supported by government measures, including the easing of loan-to-value (LTV) rules and lower transfer fees.

These measures helped encourage buyers who had already decided to purchase to complete ownership transfers more quickly.

However, Knight Frank said the rise in transfers did not mean the market had fully recovered, as it continues to face a major problem that has accumulated over several years: unsold inventory.

350,000 unsold condo units may take five to six years to clear

The condominium market in Bangkok and surrounding provinces currently has around 350,000 units of unsold inventory. Average annual ownership transfers across the market stand at about 60,000 units.

Based on a simple calculation, assuming no large volume of new supply enters the market, it would take around five to six years to clear the excess stock.

“The figures show that today’s market problem is not a lack of buyers, but the fact that there is too much remaining supply for short-term purchasing power to absorb. The longer this stock remains in the system, the more developers’ financial costs will rise,” the company said.

With supply still exceeding demand, bargaining power has started to shift. In the past, sellers largely set market conditions. Today, buyers have far more choices in terms of price, promotions, discounts, giveaways and payment terms.

Many developers are therefore delaying new launches and focusing on liquidity management rather than rushing to expand. In a highly competitive market, preserving cash may now be more important than rapid growth.

Looking at the overall picture, Thailand’s condominium market is moving from an era driven by investment and speculation into one increasingly driven by real demand.

The absence of new CBD condominium launches, the growing proportion of projects priced below 80,000 baht per square metre and the shift towards the 1.5-million-to-3-million-baht price range all point to this transition over the next one to two years.

“Developers that survive may not be those that launch the most projects, but those that can develop projects that best match real market purchasing power. With more than 350,000 unsold condominium units in the market, the key question is no longer what more to build, but how to sell the stock that already exists,” Knight Frank said.