Oil Fund deficit under close watch after lower-than-expected revision despite LPG pressure
Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund deficit came in 7 billion baht lower than expected, but overall debt remains high at 58.5 billion baht
Thailand’s Oil Fuel Fund deficit has been revised lower than previously expected after officials found that outstanding subsidy debt was about 7 billion baht below earlier estimates, although the fund remains heavily burdened by LPG support and oil-price volatility.
The Oil Fuel Fund Office said the fund’s estimated position as of May 24, 2026, had been adjusted to a deficit of 57.523 billion baht after a review of actual compensation claims from oil traders.
The revision followed a check of outstanding subsidy payments as of April 30, 2026, which found that the fund’s real obligations were lower than earlier assumptions.
According to the office, actual outstanding subsidy debt was 7.002 billion baht lower than previously projected.
Most of the reduction came from lower-than-expected compensation debt for various fuel products, which fell by 6.731 billion baht. Outstanding compensation debt for LPG used as fuel was also reduced by 271 million baht.
The Fuel Fund Executive Committee approved the revised estimate at its meeting on June 12, 2026, after a proposal by the Oil Fuel Fund Office.
The downward revision comes after months of strain on Thailand’s fuel-subsidy system.
The Oil Fuel Fund has been used to cushion diesel prices during volatile global oil markets, while the Cabinet earlier approved a 20-billion-baht loan to support the fund as Middle East tensions added pressure to crude prices and living costs.
The committee also instructed the office to review and verify the fund’s estimated financial position at the end of every month, in order to keep its figures closer to actual obligations.
Despite the downward revision, the fund remains in deficit.
Its latest overall position stood at a negative 58.498 billion baht as of June 14, 2026.
The oil account was 19.647 billion baht in deficit, while the LPG account remained the larger burden at 38.851 billion baht.
The office said global oil prices had risen after the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran since late February 2026, while domestic fuel consumption had fluctuated significantly.
Those conditions prompted the office to update its assumptions and adjust the fund’s estimated position to better reflect the actual financial situation.
The latest figures suggest that Thailand’s fuel subsidy burden is lighter than previously feared, but not yet close to easing.
LPG remains the fund’s heaviest pressure point, while global energy volatility continues to pose a risk to domestic fuel-price management.
The issue has also become increasingly important for household costs and business planning, as fuel subsidies affect transport, logistics and consumer prices across the economy.
Any change in the fund’s financial position is therefore closely watched by policymakers and energy users, particularly while global oil prices remain vulnerable to geopolitical risks and supply disruptions.
