This will be the year of the Monkey Business
There is high expectation that the new draft Constitution will be issued early in the New Year, which will usher in the Year of the Monkey, according to the Chinese calendar.
I have three predictions for the Monkey Year in Thailand.
Prediction 1: The Constitution will retain the clauses that limit each party to a maximum of 46 members of parliament. There will be 400 MPs in total, which makes a minimum of nine parties in the House and a minimum of five parties in government.
Prediction 2: Only two parties will be presented to the voters. The Democrat Party will go up against the “Not the Democrat Party”, namely the latest incarnation of the Thai Rak Thai. In other words, the next time we have an election, we can expect the same result as in 2000, 2004 and 2011.
Prediction 3: A “reconciliation bill” will reconcile the public to the fact that nothing has changed. Nothing will change until corruption at the top level is eradicated, and as far as I know nobody is whistling that tune. (I do admit to suffering hearing loss, so perhaps somebody can update me on any developments in this area.)
Welcome to a New Year of Monkey Business.
Richard Bowler
