TAT shifts airline strategy as Middle East crisis disrupts flights and long-haul tourism

Thailand is stepping up efforts to rebuild international air capacity and reduce its reliance on Middle East aviation hubs after regional conflict disrupted long-haul travel flows and forced the Tourism Authority of Thailand (TAT) to lower its foreign tourist target from distant markets this year.

TAT Governor Thapanee Kiatphaibool said the agency aims to restore Thailand’s passenger seat capacity to more than 100% of the 2019 level by 2027, using air connectivity as a core measure of tourism recovery. The goal is being driven through TAT’s “Airlines Focus” strategy, which encourages airlines to open new routes, increase frequencies and strengthen direct access to Thailand.

The benchmark year is 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic, when Thailand welcomed almost 40 million foreign tourists, the highest level in the country’s history.

Air connectivity has become even more critical after prolonged tension in the Middle East affected both demand and costs. Although global market sentiment has improved after the United States and Iran reached a preliminary agreement aimed at easing hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz, the tourism sector is still facing disruption from reduced flights, higher energy costs and weakened traveller confidence on some routes.

Chiravadee Khunsub, deputy governor for International Marketing Europe America Middle East and Africa, said 2025 had been the strongest year on record for Thailand’s long-haul markets, with 10.83 million arrivals, up 10.64% from 2024. However, the conflict in the Middle East has forced TAT to revise its 2026 long-haul target down from 11 million to 10 million visitors.

“Since the conflict erupted on February 28 and continued for more than three months, the Middle East market has effectively disappeared. Every market in the region has fallen, from a normal level of about 800,000 visitors a year,” she said. “Tourists from Europe and the Americas have remained stable, which shows that momentum from last year was strong until the crisis began. These markets are resilient and can recover quickly.”

TAT’s post-pandemic Airlines Focus strategy had already helped encourage more direct services to Thailand, softening the impact by drawing visitors from new areas in Central Asia and Eastern Europe. However, the decline in long-haul seat capacity through Middle East hubs, estimated at around 30%, has forced TAT to adjust its approach.

The agency is now using a “3R” strategy to manage uncertainty: Retain, Reshape and Recovery.

The first pillar, Retain, focuses on preserving existing flight capacity, especially direct flights. This has become more difficult during the low season, as higher oil prices and fuel uncertainty have added pressure on airlines and prompted some carriers to reduce services.

The second pillar, Reshape, aims to diversify Thailand’s aviation gateways away from heavy dependence on Middle East hubs. TAT is looking more closely at East Asian aviation networks, including carriers such as EVA Air, China Airlines and Korean Air, as alternative springboards for bringing long-haul visitors into Thailand.

The third pillar, Recovery, focuses on restoring demand from key long-haul markets, especially the top five source markets, including the United Kingdom, which remains relatively resilient during the low season.

Long-haul tourism has become increasingly valuable to Thailand because visitors from distant markets tend to stay longer and spend more. In 2025, long-haul visitors generated 685 billion baht in revenue, up 13.6%. Europe accounted for 8.25 million arrivals, up 12.42%, while the Americas contributed 1.57 million visitors, up 6.84%.

The Middle East, excluding Israel, recorded 806,000 visitors, a slight decline of 0.11%, while Africa grew 17.96% to 196,000 visitors.

The top 10 long-haul markets visiting Thailand in 2025 were Russia, the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, France, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada and Poland.

For 2027, TAT plans to guide its overseas offices under a “W x L x D” framework, standing for wide, long and deep. The approach will focus on broadening market reach, lengthening travel demand across the year and deepening cooperation with airlines and tourism partners.

Chiravadee said TAT offices will work with airlines that continue to operate normally, including Turkish Airlines, whose Istanbul hub offers strong connections from many European cities. Traditional markets such as Scandinavia will also remain a focus after all Scandinavian markets returned to strong growth last year, with positive momentum continuing into this year.

At the same time, TAT wants to push Thailand further towards Value Tourism, or higher-value travel, to lift overall spending rather than relying only on arrival numbers.

Chiravadee said short-haul Asian markets are more price-sensitive, while long-haul travellers tend to look for “worth” rather than simply cheap prices. Many long-haul tourists travel for leisure and are willing to consider five-star hotels, although Thailand faces rising competition from regional rivals.

She noted that five-star hotel rooms in Thailand now often start at around 7,000 baht per night, compared with about 3,000 baht in Vietnam and similar rates in some Chinese cities, such as Kunming. This means Thailand must compete more clearly on experience, service, brand strength and value, not only on price.

On the short-haul side, TAT is trying to maintain overall balance because nearby Asian markets account for about 65% of all foreign arrivals to Thailand.

Pattaraanong Na Chiangmai, deputy governor for International Marketing Asia and South Pacific, said the agency aims to keep short-haul arrivals at around 21 million in 2026 by supporting major markets such as China, India and Malaysia, while also maintaining million-plus markets including Hong Kong and Taiwan.

Emerging markets will also be part of the strategy. Myanmar may be smaller in visitor volume but offers high spending potential, while the Philippines shows demand for quality leisure travel.

China remains the most important short-haul market. TAT has set a 2026 target of 7.5 million Chinese visitors, after arrivals reached 2.31 million in the first five months of the year, up 18.35%. Pattaraanong said the figure reflected improving confidence in Thailand’s safety.

For China, TAT is seeking to balance volume and value by using content marketing to reach younger travellers active on social media. The agency also plans to build on the popularity of the Chinese film “Love Letter to Grandma”, which was shot in Thailand and has helped generate interest in locations such as Bangkok’s Yaowarat area.

India is another key market, with a 2026 target of 2.59 million visitors. However, TAT remains concerned about the Cabinet’s decision to end the 60-day visa-free measure for visitors from 93 countries and territories, which could affect Indian arrival numbers once the change officially takes effect.

South Korea is one of the markets under pressure. Arrivals from South Korea reached 539,000 in the first five months of the year, down nearly 20% from the same period last year.

TAT attributed the decline to several factors, including intense competition from Vietnam, which offers lower-priced tourism products and stronger flight support. Fewer flights to Thailand, South Korea’s weaker economy and the baht’s relative strength against competing destinations have also weighed on the market.

The challenge for Thailand is therefore no longer only to bring back visitor numbers, but to rebuild air access, protect resilient markets, diversify aviation hubs and sharpen the country’s appeal to travellers who are willing to spend more for quality experiences.

With long-haul travel facing new uncertainty and short-haul competition intensifying, TAT’s 2027 seat-capacity goal is emerging as a key test of whether Thailand can return to a stronger, more balanced and higher-value tourism recovery.

Bangkokbiznews , TAT Newsroom , TAT